Methodology
How the data is built, what the pipeline does, and the confidence levels for each data type.
Data Sources
| Source | What We Extract | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| SEC EDGAR (XBRL) | Share counts (EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding), quarterly cadence | All 10-K/10-Q filers, 2019–present |
| SEC EDGAR (full text) | Going-concern language, reverse-split announcements, stress flags from 10-K/10-Q/8-K | Full-text search, 2019–present |
| SEC EDGAR (424B/S-1) | Prospectus supplements, share registration events, financier names | All filed, 2019–present |
| Market data | Price, volume, VWAP — 5 years of minute bars | ~11,000 US microcap tickers |
| FINRA short volume | Daily short volume ratios | 5 years, public FINRA files |
The Run Census
10,942 documented run events, constructed from 5 years of market data. A "run" is defined as:
- Price spike of at least 40% from the 5-day prior close
- Volume in the run week exceeds 0.5× the 20-day average float
- The ticker was in the microcap universe (market cap <$300M at run onset)
- At least one prior reverse split in the 24 months preceding the run
Exclusions: M&A-driven price moves (gap ≥30% with RTH range <1.5%); index-rebalancing events; confirmed buyout announcements. Events are deduplicated by ticker within a 30-day window.
Filing State Classification
Each tracked ticker is assigned a filing state derived entirely from SEC EDGAR records. The rules are explicit and deterministic, evaluated in priority order (first match wins):
Filing state reflects the company's current SEC filing posture as of the last pipeline run. It is not a market-based signal and does not predict future price movement. We report what EDGAR records show; the future is not determined.
Share Count Extraction
Share counts are sourced from SEC XBRL data, specifically the EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding element in each 10-K and 10-Q filing. Known limitations: XBRL tagging errors by some filers; share counts reported as of the filing date, not quarter-end; warrants and convertible notes outstanding are not included in reported share counts. The pipeline flags tickers with anomalous share-count movements for manual review.
Confidence Levels
| Data Type | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Historical split history | High | Sourced from 8-K filings and EDGAR corporate actions. Cross-validated. |
| Share count timeline | High | XBRL EDGAR. Quarterly cadence; intra-quarter moves not captured. |
| Run census (historical) | High | 10,942 events, rule-based, deterministic. Definition documented above. |
| Current phase classification | Medium | Probabilistic. Updated nightly. Phase changes can lag intraday events by up to 24 hours. |
| Stress flag scores | Medium | Full-text keyword scoring; may miss novel phrasing; does not assess context. |
| Filing state (EDGAR) | High | Derived from 424B/S-1 filing dates, going-concern flags, and rs_intent flags in EDGAR records. Updated on pipeline refresh. |
Data Licensing and Display Policy
Aggregate statistics on this site — including float turnover during run weeks, repeat-venue concentration figures, and post-peak drawdown ranges — are one-time research findings derived from five years of licensed market data and are not updated live. Per-ticker market data (prices, volumes, run events) is not redistributed on this site. Per-ticker figures shown are computed exclusively from SEC EDGAR filings and XBRL share-count data, which are in the public domain.
Editorial Rules
- Every claim cites a source. A filing, a parquet-derived aggregate statistic with sample size, or a direct quote from a public document. No unsourced assertions.
- No allegation of intent. We document what filings say and what prices did. We never write "X fund intended to dump shares on retail." We write "X fund had a registration statement for N shares filed M days before the run."
- No named individuals as antagonists. We name entities when they appear in public filings as signatories. We do not characterize individuals' motives.
- Legal structures are described as legal. Every page that discusses financing structures includes a one-sentence acknowledgment that these are legal instruments disclosed in public filings.
- Corrections policy. Data disputes are investigated and corrected within 72 hours. corrections@serialdiluters.com
Disclaimer
SerialDiluters reports historical data from public SEC filings and market data. Nothing on this site is investment advice. We do not predict stock prices or allege illegal activity. All financing structures discussed are legal instruments disclosed in SEC filings. Data may contain errors; see this Methodology page and our Corrections policy. Data last updated: nightly pipeline. Timestamps shown on each data element.